With merely days remaining before the 9 July deadline established by US President Donald Trump's administration, the prospects of securing an interim trade arrangement between Delhi and Washington continue to flicker but are becoming more mired in tough negotiations.
Although White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt suggested that the agreement was on the verge of completion, and Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's optimistic declaration that Delhi would embrace "a grand, splendid" deal - in response to Trump's assertion that a trade accord with Delhi is forthcoming and would "unveil" the Indian market - negotiators find themselves in arduous deliberations.
Essential points of contention linger, particularly regarding agricultural access, automotive parts, and tariffs on Indian steel.
Indian trade representatives have prolonged their visit to Washington for another round of discussions, even as Delhi indicates "significant red lines" on agricultural and dairy safeguards, with the US advocating for broader market openings. The atmosphere remains hopeful - but the timeframe to secure an agreement seems to be tightening.
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"The next week could dictate whether India and the US agree to a constrained 'mini-deal' or step away from negotiations - at least for the moment," states Ajay Srivastava, a former Indian trade representative who heads the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), a think tank based in Delhi.
That unpredictability rests on a few crucial flashpoints - none more disputed than agriculture.
"There are two primary hurdles to finalizing a preliminary accord. First on the agenda is US access to the Indian market for fundamental agricultural commodities. India must safeguard its basic agricultural sector for economic and political reasons," Richard Rossow, who monitors India's economy at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies, informed the BBC.
For years, Washington has advocated for expanded access to India's agricultural domain, viewing it as a significant unexploited market. However, India has ardently defended it, citing food security, the livelihoods of millions of small-scale farmers, and interests.
Mr. Rossow points out that the "second challenge is India's non-tariff barriers. Factors such as India's expanding set of 'Quality Control Orders' (QCO) pose considerable obstacles to US market access and may prove challenging to effectively address in a trade pact."
The US has expressed concerns regarding what it perceives as India's burgeoning and onerous import-quality regulations. Over 700 QCOs - associated with the "self-reliant India" initiative - are intended to limit low-quality imports and foster domestic manufacturing. Suman Berry, a senior figure in the government think tank Niti Aayog, has similarly labeled these regulations a "malign intervention" that hampers imports and increases costs for local medium and small-scale industries.